NSE EOD Analysis v2

2026-03-06 · claude-sonnet-4-6 · unified screener · compact OI
Market Regime
BEAR
HIGH confidence
VIX at 97th percentile, FII net short, long unwinding, breadth in panic zone
Nifty breadth shows %>EMA10 at 19.8% (panic territory), 52W↓=47 vs 52W↑=10, and ↓4%(W)=277 stocks (broad weekly selloff). FII net index short -174,291 contracts with cash equity outflow -₹6,030 cr; Nifty futures in LONG_UNWINDING across all expiries.
India VIX
19.88
VIX at 97.2nd 52-week percentile (range 9.15–22.79) and +11.31% single-day jump demands maximum position-size reduction; all watchlist entries capped at HOLD, not aggressive BUY.
Breadth
DETERIORATING
Today Adv%=34.3% (bearish day) following a single-day 76.8% bounce on Mar-5 that immediately failed; %>EMA10=19.8% sits on the edge of the panic zone (<20%), with structural indicators %E10>E20=29.4% and %E20>E40=34.9% in multi-month deterioration. 52W↓=47 stocks at annual lows vs 52W↑=10 at highs confirms breadth washout.
⚠ %>EMA10 at 19.8% — one bad session takes it to deep panic (<15%)
⚠ Mar-5 bounce (Adv%=76.8%) fully reversed in one session — rally unsustainable without breadth follow-through
⚠ ↓4%(W)=277 is 5× the bearish threshold; more stocks likely at 52W lows by next week
OI Structure
Weekly bias
BEARISH
Monthly bias
BEARISH
Weekly max pain
24200.0
Monthly max pain
24500.0
Weekly: Spot 24450 has only 50 pts of free space before the 24500 CE wall (3.46M OI, +1.43M new); massive PE support at 24000 (6.43M) creates a 450-pt air pocket to the downside; weekly PCR estimated ~0.72 — bearish. Monthly: 25000 double-wall is the structural ceiling; PE base at 24500 (3.57M, +152K) and 23000 (4.56M) establishes floor zone; 26000 CE (6.71M) is multi-month cap.
Sector Rotation
▲ LEADING
Aerospace & DefenseHOLDMARKUP5D=+2.4%, 10D=+5.1%, 20D=+5.2% — all three periods positive (3/3 PASS); vol_ratio=1.7 (above average), pct_vol_spike=83.3% (extreme participation); pct_above_ma20=66.7%. Only sector with meaningful positive 20D return in a market-wide selloff. MARKUP classification: 5D approaching +3% threshold with volume confirmation. VIX ELEVATED caps view at HOLD.
Offshore Support Solution DrillingHOLDMARKUP5D=+12.8%, 10D=+9.4%, 20D=+8.1% (3/3 PASS); vol_ratio=1.6, pct_vol_spike=60%; MARKUP confirmed (5D>3, pct_vol_spike>30). Small universe (5 stocks), treat as thematic trade only.
Oil Exploration & ProductionHOLDNEUTRAL5D=+1.0%, 10D=+1.6%, 20D=-0.9% (2/3 PASS); vol_ratio=1.2, pct_vol_spike=50%; pct_above_ma20=75%. Positive medium-term bias, outperforming broad market; delivery trend negative (-1.4) limits to NEUTRAL SM phase.
SugarHOLDNEUTRAL5D=+1.4%, 10D=+2.0%, 20D=-0.8% (2/3 PASS); vol_ratio=0.8, deliv_trend=4.2 (rising delivery); pct_vol_spike=20% (below 25% threshold for ACCUMULATION). Counter-cyclical defensive, pct_above_ma20=56%.
▼ LAGGING
IT Enabled Services & Computers SoftwareAVOIDMARKDOWNIT Enabled Services 5D=-6.1%, 10D=-11.4%, 20D=-15.2% (0/3 FAIL); Software 5D=-5.0%, 10D=-10.5%, 20D=-14.7% (0/3 FAIL). Structural multi-month breakdown, 100D=-29.7% in software.
Civil Construction & Real EstateAVOIDMARKDOWNCivil Construction 5D=-6.8%, 10D=-7.0%, 20D=-9.7% (0/3 FAIL); Residential Projects 5D=-5.6%, 10D=-7.6%, 20D=-10.7% (0/3 FAIL). pct_above_ma20=14.1% and 5.3% respectively — structural decimation.
PharmaceuticalsAVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-2.9%, 10D=-2.7%, 20D=-3.8% (0/3 FAIL); 50D=-9.7%, 100D=-15.3%. Only 30.2% above MA20 despite sector being defensive — distribution in progress.
NBFCs & Specialty ChemicalsAVOIDMARKDOWNNBFC 5D=-6.2%, 10D=-6.4%, 20D=-5.6% (0/3 FAIL); Specialty Chemicals 5D=-4.5%, 10D=-6.6%, 20D=-7.3% (0/3 FAIL). Broad financial and chemical sector in coordinated decline.
Only Defense/Aerospace and Offshore Drilling show genuine relative strength; everything else is in broad markdown with IT, construction, and real estate leading the downside.
Delivery Signal
NEUTRAL
Most IN_D=1 delivery spikes carry MA_SIGNAL=RED (ANGELONE, ADANIGREEN, PETRONET, SAMHI, IOLCP, ABLBL, ITCHOTELS, GRASIM, SANGHIIND, ZAGGLE) — Gate 2 triggered for all. Only TIINDIA (GREEN, 3.0×spike), JSWINFRA (GREEN, 2.9×), BELRISE (GREEN, 2.5×) and KTKBANK (GREEN, 2.4×) show delivery spikes with green MA signal, but all are CONFLUENCE=1 only. No clean CONFLUENCE≥2 delivery spike stocks qualify for watchlist.
SymbolRatioNote
TIINDIA3.0MA_SIGNAL=GREEN, SPIKE_RATIO=3.0×, DELIV_PCT=85.6%; however CONFLUENCE=1 (IN_D only), no 200D structure data available — cannot confirm CLEAN classification. Monitor for additional screener confluence.
KTKBANK2.4200D_high_dist=0%, 200D_position=100%, resilience=5 — CLEAN; SPIKE_RATIO=2.4×, MA_SIGNAL=GREEN; but CONFLUENCE=2 with failing industry (Private Sector Bank 5D=-4.8%, 0/3 FAIL) requires CONFLUENCE≥3 — excluded from watchlist.
Risk Flags
⚠ VIX 19.88 at 97.2nd 52-week percentile (+11.31% single day) — EXTREME HIGH; market one shock away from >22 crisis zone
⚠ FII net index short -174,291 contracts + cash outflow -₹6,030 cr (1-day streak, may extend); FII_SHORT_CLIENT_LONG = retail trapped long
⚠ FII PE_long (939,305) > CE_long (594,054) — institutional hedging elevated; downside protection being bought
⚠ Nifty + BankNifty futures LONG_UNWINDING across all 3 expiries — no institutional conviction on long side
⚠ %>EMA10 = 19.8% at panic zone boundary; Mar-4 low was 9.9%; retest risk is real
⚠ 52W↓=47 stocks at annual lows vs 52W↑=10 — distribution phase, not capitulation recovery
⚠ Weekly CE wall at 24500 only 50 pts above spot — market effectively capped until OI structure changes
⚠ ↓4%(W)=277 stocks (55.4% of universe down >4% this week) — momentum selling across sectors
⚠ ATR estimates used for BEL and ONGC (not in source data) — verify stop levels with live ATR before entry
Watchlist (hover symbol for full reason)
SymbolLTPConvScreen
LUPIN₹2343.8MEDIUMMRH
DATAPATTNS₹3491.2MEDIUMMH
BEL₹468.4MEDIUMRH
ONGC₹279.0MEDIUMRH
Avoid
SymbolGate / Reason
ANGELONEGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + delivery spike (SPIKE_RATIO=7.0×, CONFLUENCE=1). Distribution signal in failing Stockbroking sector (5D=-4.6%, 0/3 FAIL).
ADANIGREENGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + delivery spike (SPIKE_RATIO=4.3×, CONFLUENCE=1). Power Generation failing (5D=-4.4%, 0/3 FAIL).
PETRONETGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + delivery spike (SPIKE_RATIO=4.2×, CONFLUENCE=1). LPG/CNG sector 5D=-6.7%, 0/3 FAIL.
IOLCPGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + delivery spike (SPIKE_RATIO=4.1×, CONFLUENCE=1). Pharma sector failing.
ABLBLGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + delivery spike (SPIKE_RATIO=3.6×, CONFLUENCE=1). Specialty Retail 5D=-7.2%, 0/3 FAIL.
ITCHOTELSGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + delivery spike (SPIKE_RATIO=2.9×, CONFLUENCE=1). Hotels sector 5D=-3.4%, 0/3 FAIL.
GRASIMGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + delivery spike (SPIKE_RATIO=2.7×, CONFLUENCE=1). Cement 5D=-6.7%, 0/3 FAIL.
ZAGGLEGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + delivery spike (SPIKE_RATIO=2.6×, CONFLUENCE=1). IT Enabled Services worst sector (5D=-6.1%, 10D=-11.4%).
AXISBANKMA_SIGNAL=RED, CONFLUENCE=1 (IN_R only), Private Sector Bank 5D=-4.8%, 0/3 FAIL. Recurring signal in RED-MA environment.
ASHOKLEYMA_SIGNAL=RED, CONFLUENCE=1, LAST_SEEN=2026-03-04 (stale), Commercial Vehicles sector not in passing list.
JKTYREMA_SIGNAL=RED, RSI=9.6 (distressed), CONFLUENCE=1. Tyres 5D=-6.9%, 10D=-9.6%, 0/3 FAIL.
SAMHIGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + delivery spike (SPIKE_RATIO=4.2×). Hotels sector failing.
UNIVPHOTOCONFLUENCE=2 but industry Consumer Electronics FAIL (5D=-1.3%, 0/3) requires CONFLUENCE≥3; RSI=98.8 (extreme overbought, reversal risk high in BEAR regime).
JINDALPOLYCONFLUENCE=2 but Packaging industry FAIL (5D=-6.0%, 0/3) requires CONFLUENCE≥3. RSI=86.0, 5D=+29% — likely exhaustion.
NTPCCONFLUENCE=2 but Power Generation FAIL (5D=-4.4%, 0/3) requires CONFLUENCE≥3 for watchlist inclusion.
Themes
Defense & Aerospace as the only true safe harbor in a broad market BEAR — BEL and DATAPATTNS show structural strength while 490+ stocks declinePSU commodity play (ONGC, Oil E&P) benefiting from DII buying support and positive 10D/5D returns vs negative marketFII distributing, DII absorbing — classic regime transition; DII +₹6,972 cr vs FII -₹6,030 cr creates a temporary floor but FII has the macro edgeDelivery spikes in RED-MA stocks (ADANIGREEN, PETRONET, IOLCP) signal distribution not accumulation — smart money selling into retail demandLUPIN as pharma outlier — only stock in failing sector with positive RS_5D (+4.8) and CONFLUENCE=3; potential defensive rotation target
Action Plan
With VIX at extreme 97th percentile (19.88) and Nifty futures in LONG_UNWINDING across all expiries, this is a capital preservation environment — reduce gross exposure to 30–40% of normal and avoid new longs in any sector scoring 0/3 on the strength test. The OI structure confirms a ceiling at 24500 (only 50 pts away, 3.46M fresh CE writing) and a double wall at 25000 (10M weekly + 3.6M monthly CE), limiting upside; only Aerospace & Defense (DATAPATTNS, BEL) and Oil E&P (ONGC) in passing industries, plus LUPIN as a high-confluence outlier with +4.8% RS vs Nifty, qualify for small starter positions with hard stops 2–7% below entry. Do not chase; wait for VIX to drop below 18 and %>EMA10 to recover above 30% before scaling; any position initiated today must have stop-loss pre-set at entry — no exceptions.
🧠 CLAUDE REASONING ▶ (click to expand)