NSE EOD Analysis v2

2026-03-09 · claude-sonnet-4-6 · unified screener · compact OI
Market Regime
BEAR
HIGH confidence
Panic selloff: VIX +17.5%, FII massive short, breadth 11.7% advances
Nifty 500 breadth collapsed to 11.7% advances with 76 stocks down >4% intraday and 97 stocks hitting 52-week lows; futures in SHORT_BUILDUP across all three Nifty expiries (OI +11.1%, price -1.72%) with FII index net short at -193,902 contracts — the most bearish institutional posture of the cycle.
India VIX
23.36
VIX spiked +17.51% in one session (panic-event threshold >15%), sitting at the 100th percentile of its 52-week range (9.15–23.36), crushing option-buying strategies and expanding stop-loss requirements by ~40% vs normal conditions.
Breadth
DETERIORATING
Breadth has now posted back-to-back capitulation readings: Mar 4 (Adv%=10.7%, ↓4%=86) and Mar 9 (Adv%=11.7%, ↓4%=76), with %>EMA10 at 11.5% and %>EMA20 at 15.3% — both inside the sub-20% panic zone. 97 stocks hit 52-week lows today vs just 1 at highs.
⚠ Two of last four sessions posted sub-12% advance ratios — a cluster unseen outside 2020/2022 crash periods
⚠ ↓25% tail (8 stocks in 25D) rising while ↑25% tail (9) barely holds — distribution accelerating
⚠ %E20>E40 at 32.1% signals structural downtrend now embedded in majority of Nifty 500
OI Structure
Weekly bias
BEARISH
Monthly bias
BEARISH
Weekly max pain
23800.0
Monthly max pain
24000.0
Weekly: fresh CE writing dominates 24100–24500 (24100 +2.08M, 24200 +2.75M, 24300 +2.26M, 24500 +2.97M) while 24000 PE is unwinding (-892K) showing support eroding below spot; 23800 PE built +3.52M fresh creating the real weekly floor. Monthly: 24000 CE fresh (+1.61M) establishes ceiling, 24000 PE (5.70M massive) is the gravitational pin, with 23000–23500 as structural monthly support shelf (23000 PE 4.80M, 23500 PE 2.91M).
Sector Rotation
▲ LEADING
Offshore Support Solution DrillingHOLDMARKUPOnly sector with all three return periods positive: 5D=+19.9%, 10D=+14.6%, 20D=+12.1%; vol_ratio=4.9 (extreme), pct_vol_spike=80% (MARKUP criteria met: 5D>3 + pct_vol_spike>30); deliv_trend=-28.5 (delivery falling = momentum-driven, not accumulation — flag as hot-money).
Aerospace & DefenseHOLDNEUTRALPasses strength test: 5D=+1.7%, 10D=+1.5%, 20D=+5.3% (3/3 positive); vol_ratio=1.2, pct_vol_spike=44.4%; deliv_trend=-0.9 (not meeting ACCUMULATION threshold of >1.5); pct_above_ma20=55.6% — best structural breadth in universe.
ExplosivesHOLDNEUTRALPasses on 10D=+4.1%, 20D=+3.8% (2/3 positive, 5D=-7.6% today's selloff dragging); vol_ratio=0.6 low, pct_vol_spike=33.3%; not enough vol for MARKUP classification but defensive positive structure.
▼ LAGGING
PetrochemicalsAVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-12.6%, 10D=-11.6%, 20D=-13.7%; vol_ratio=1.3, pct_vol_spike=62.5% — MARKDOWN criteria met (5D<-3, pct_vol_spike>30); 100D=-22.7% deepening structural decline.
IT Enabled ServicesAVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-8.9%, 10D=-13.0%, 20D=-16.2%; pct_above_ma20=0.0%; 100D=-29.6% confirming long-term breakdown; pct_vol_spike=23.9% (below MARKDOWN threshold but trend devastated).
Civil ConstructionAVOIDNEUTRAL5D=-8.3%, 10D=-10.7%, 20D=-11.8%; 100D=-28.1%; pct_above_ma20=7.0%; deliv_trend=+5.2 (distribution: high delivery + price falling hard).
Computers - Software & ConsultingAVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-7.8%, 10D=-11.4%, 20D=-14.8%; 100D=-30.9%; pct_above_ma20=4.4%; vol_ratio=0.6 (no buyers even at these levels).
Every sector except Aerospace/Defense, Explosives, and Offshore Drilling is in structural downtrend; capital is concentrating in defense/government capex names while broad market capitulates.
Delivery Signal
DISTRIBUTING
Of all delivery-spike stocks (IN_D=1), every single one except ASTERDM carries MA_SIGNAL=RED — triggering Gate 2 and confirming institutional distribution under high delivery (ANGELONE 6.1×, BPCL 5.0×, HINDPETRO 4.6× all RED); ASTERDM shows GREEN MA but CONFLUENCE=1 (below watchlist threshold). No clean accumulation with delivery spike exists today.
SymbolRatioNote
ASTERDM2.4Only delivery spike with GREEN MA_SIGNAL; CONFLUENCE=1 (insufficient for watchlist); no 200D data available — monitor for recurring entry signal before acting.
Risk Flags
⚠ VIX at 23.36 (+17.51% single-day spike) = panic event; 100th percentile of 52-week range — ATR on all positions must be widened by ~40%
⚠ FII index net short: -193,902 contracts (vs -174,291 on Mar 6) — net short increasing, 2-day streak; FII cash equity net -₹6,346 Cr on top
⚠ FII_SHORT_CLIENT_LONG divergence active: retail trapped long while smart money short — most bearish Indian market setup
⚠ Nifty futures SHORT_BUILDUP all expiries: Mar(OI+11.1%), Apr(+8.22%), May(+9.69%) — structural short positioning not one-day event
⚠ 97 stocks at 52-week lows vs 1 at highs; ↓4%(W)=330 stocks — distribution across entire Nifty 500 universe
⚠ BankNifty PCR=0.791 (bearish), max pain 59,000 vs spot 56,019 — index 5.3% below max pain indicating sustained institutional pressure
⚠ 24000 CE weekly +3.8M fresh contracts cap upside; any bounce toward 24100–24200 faces layered fresh call walls
⚠ Recovery suspects (200D_high_dist < -25%): ZENTEC (-35.4%), VARDMNPOLY (-33.3%), BALRAMCHIN (-20.9%), NITIRAJ (-15.6%) — avoid all
Watchlist (hover symbol for full reason)
SymbolLTPConvScreen
DATAPATTNS₹3493.2MEDIUMMH
SOLARINDS₹14977.0MEDIUMMH
Avoid
SymbolGate / Reason
ZENTECGate 1: 200D_high_dist=-35.4% (<-25%) AND 200D_position=21.2% (<30%) — confirmed distribution trap; double gate violation.
VARDMNPOLYGate 1: 200D_high_dist=-33.3% (<-25%) — recovery suspect / distribution trap.
ANGELONEGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + SPIKE_RATIO=6.1× delivery spike — institutional distribution confirmed.
BPCLGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + SPIKE_RATIO=5.0× — distribution in downtrend; Refineries & Marketing 5D=-7.9%, 100D vol_ratio=2.0 (panic selling).
HINDPETROGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + SPIKE_RATIO=4.6× — distribution in downtrend.
ABLBLGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + SPIKE_RATIO=3.8× — distribution confirmed.
PETRONETGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + SPIKE_RATIO=3.3× — delivery spike in declining structure.
CAMSGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + SPIKE_RATIO=3.2×; Depositories industry 5D=-4.8%, 10D=-9.6% — double negative.
GODREJPROPGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + SPIKE_RATIO=2.8×; Residential sector 5D=-7.9%, 10D=-9.8%, 20D=-13.5% — all failing.
IOLCPGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + SPIKE_RATIO=2.6×; Pharma sector all negative.
RELIGAREGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + SPIKE_RATIO=2.4× — distribution in downtrend.
ADANIPORTSGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + SPIKE_RATIO=2.4×; Port sector 5D=-6.3%, 10D=-6.6% failing.
RAINGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + SPIKE_RATIO=2.3×; Petrochemicals 5D=-12.6% — sector in MARKDOWN.
WIPROGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + SPIKE_RATIO=2.3×; IT sector 5D=-7.8%, 100D=-30.9% — structural MARKDOWN.
IDBIGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + SPIKE_RATIO=2.2×; Private Bank sector 5D=-7.3%, 10D=-7.8% failing.
Themes
Defense & Explosives: Only islands of positive returns (Aerospace +5.3% 20D, Explosives +3.8% 20D) — government capex / geopolitical hedge tradeGlobal risk-off transmission: FII cash equity outflows (-₹6,346 Cr) + index shorts suggest foreign-led selling wave, not domesticVIX capitulation setup: Historically, VIX at 52W high + back-to-back sub-12% breadth = medium-term buying opportunity (4–8 weeks out), but premature to act before FII short coveringDelivery-spike distribution: High SPIKE_RATIOs (6.1×, 5.0×, 4.6×) exclusively in RED-MA stocks confirm institutions distributing into any intraday bid
Action Plan
With VIX at a panic extreme (23.36, +17.5% spike, 100th percentile) and Nifty futures in SHORT_BUILDUP across all expiries backed by FII net short of -193,902 contracts, this is NOT a buying environment — preserve capital, raise cash, and avoid all leveraged long positions until FII short covering begins or VIX retreats below 18. The only watchlist positions (DATAPATTNS, SOLARINDS) are in the sole passing industries (Aerospace/Defense, Explosives) with maximum structural scores, but size should be 25–30% of normal given elevated ATR; use hard stops at 1.5×ATR and do not average down. Wait for weekly OI to show 24000 PE rebuilding (currently unwinding at -892K) and BankNifty to reclaim its 56,000 double-wall support before adding broader market exposure.
🧠 CLAUDE REASONING ▶ (click to expand)