NSE EOD Analysis v2

2026-03-10 · claude-sonnet-4-6 · unified screener · compact OI
Market Regime
TRANSITION
MEDIUM confidence
Panic VIX drop triggers breadth bounce, but FII short structure and OI ceiling at 24300 limit upside
Nifty bounced sharply (Adv%=85.9%, 56 stocks up >4%) after yesterday's collapse (11.7% advance), but this is SHORT_COVERING not fresh LONG_BUILDUP—near futures OI fell 1,302 lots while price rose 1.12%. FII remain aggressively net short at -187,070 index futures (2-day streak) with cash equity selling of ₹4,673 Cr; structural breadth (%>EMA40=23.8%, 52W highs=6 vs lows=14) still deeply impaired.
India VIX
18.91
VIX crashed 19% intraday (23.36→18.91) signalling panic washout, but at 96th 52-week percentile and still above 20DMA (15.06), risk-off positioning remains; restrict all longs to MEDIUM conviction, max view HOLD.
Breadth
IMPROVING
Today's breadth is an extreme reversal: 85.9% advance (426 vs 69 declines), 56 stocks up >4% in a single day after yesterday's panic (11.7% advance, 76 stocks down >4%). However, structural indicators remain alarmed: %>EMA40=23.8%, %E10>E20=22.2%, %E20>E40=31.2%, with 52W lows (14) still exceeding 52W highs (6).
⚠ Bounce is SHORT_COVERING (futures OI -1,302 lots on price +1.12%) not fresh accumulation
⚠ Weekly ↓4%(W)=153 shows the relief is within a broader markdown
⚠ %>EMA40 at 23.8% — only 5 days ago at 16.9% (panic zone); recovery fragile
⚠ FII_SHORT_CLIENT_LONG divergence: retail caught long while smart money stays short
OI Structure
Weekly bias
BULLISH
Monthly bias
NEUTRAL
Weekly max pain
24000.0
Monthly max pain
24500.0
Weekly PCR estimated >1.3 (massive PE at 23500/24000/24200 dwarfs CE except at 24300 where 1.76M CE with +1.32M fresh writing creates an immediate ceiling just 38pts above spot 24262—very tight. Monthly structure: 24000 PE (5.95M) is an iron floor while 25000 CE (5.05M) is the monthly cap; free zone narrows to 238pts upside before next CE wall at 24500 (2.64M). Cross-expiry double walls confirm 24000 support and 25000 resistance as the dominant range.
Sector Rotation
▲ LEADING
Aerospace & DefenseHOLDNEUTRALOnly large industry passing strength test 3/3: 5D=+2.6%, 10D=+5.2%, 20D=+3.9%. vol_ratio=0.9, pct_vol_spike=16.7% (below 30% for MARKUP), deliv_trend=-2.9 (negative, not ACCUMULATION). pct_above_ma20=66.7% — strongest relative structure in universe. VIX elevated caps view at HOLD.
Offshore Support Solution DrillingHOLDMARKUP5D=+15.2%, 10D=+17.2%, 20D=+13.6% — 3/3 PASS; pct_vol_spike=60% (>30%) triggers MARKUP signal; vol_ratio=1.2; pct_above_ma20=80%. Only 5 stocks, no CONFLUENCE≥2 screener entries available. VIX elevated = HOLD.
SugarHOLDNEUTRAL5D=+3.3%, 10D=+4.1%, 20D=0.0% — 2/3 PASS; pct_vol_spike=20% (below 30% threshold for MARKUP), vol_ratio=0.8, pct_above_ma20=68%. No qualifying CONFLUENCE≥2 stock screener entries.
Exchange and Data PlatformHOLDNEUTRAL5D=+3.1%, 10D=+5.0%, 20D=-3.4% — 2/3 PASS; pct_vol_spike=0%, vol_ratio=1.0. pct_above_ma20=66.7%. Small universe (3 stocks), no CONFLUENCE≥2 entries.
▼ LAGGING
PharmaceuticalsWATCHNEUTRAL5D=-0.1%, 10D=-2.5%, 20D=-4.5% — 0/3 FAIL; 50D=-7.7%, 100D=-14.7%. deliv_trend=1.3 (below ACCUMULATION threshold of 1.5). pct_above_ma20=38.7%. Despite multiple stocks at 52W highs in screener, industry structure is failing.
Civil ConstructionAVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-2.9%, 10D=-8.6%, 20D=-12.4%, 50D=-19.8%, 100D=-26.5% — deep markdown. pct_vol_spike=28.2%, deliv_trend=-0.3, pct_above_ma20=11.3%. Structural decline across all timeframes.
IT Enabled ServicesAVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-2.2%, 10D=-10.3%, 20D=-17.1%, 50D=-21.7%, 100D=-25.3% — worst 100D return in universe; pct_above_ma20=6.5%. Distribution trap territory.
Computers Software & ConsultingAVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-2.1%, 10D=-8.4%, 20D=-14.8%, 100D=-28.6%. pct_above_ma20=11.1%. Persistent markdown with 0/3 strength fail.
Private Sector BankAVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-4.3%, 10D=-5.5%, 20D=-4.0%; pct_above_ma20=10.5%. vol_ratio=1.1, pct_vol_spike=42.1% with negative 5D = distribution signal. FII aggressively short index which overweights banks.
Defensive pockets (Aerospace, Pharma select names) outperforming; broad market in markdown with FII short covering providing temporary relief not structural reversal.
Delivery Signal
NEUTRAL
All IN_D=1 stocks with CONFLUENCE≥2 have MA_SIGNAL=RED (PETRONET, triggered Gate 2). The sole delivery spike + GREEN MA combination (AGIIL) is CONFLUENCE=1 only. Among CONFLUENCE=2 stocks, all have IN_D=0; the high-resilience CLEAN names (DATAPATTNS, BEL, NATCOPHARM, SUNPHARMA) are M+H or R+H combinations without fresh delivery spikes today, suggesting institutional interest is in stealth mode (low-volume accumulation) rather than aggressive delivery-backed buying.
SymbolRatioNote
DATAPATTNS0.0No delivery spike today but 200D_high_dist=-1.5%, 200D_position=96.1%, resilience=5 — CLEAN structure at 52W highs. IN_M+IN_H. RSI=80.7 (near overbought, watch for pullback entry).
BEL0.0200D_high_dist=-1.1%, 200D_position=95.1%, resilience=4 — CLEAN. IN_R (31 recurring days/40D) + IN_H. Consistent qualifying pattern = stealth accumulation signal.
NATCOPHARM0.0200D_high_dist=0.0%, 200D_position=100%, resilience=5 — perfect structure at 52W high. IN_M (MA_ALIGNED=True, above all MAs) + IN_H. RSI=78, ATR=3.9%.
Risk Flags
⚠ FII net index short -187,070 contracts (2-day SHORT streak); fii_pe_long (849,682) >> fii_ce_long (473,418) — smart money hedged/short
⚠ FII cash equity outflow -₹4,673 Cr on 10-Mar; DII supporting with +₹6,333 Cr but insufficient to offset structural selling
⚠ VIX at 96th 52-week percentile (18.91) — even after 19% drop; remains ABOVE_20DMA (15.06); any reversal upward = re-acceleration of risk-off
⚠ Nifty spot 24262 vs nearest CE wall 24300 (weekly, 1.76M OI +1.32M fresh): only 38pts free zone upward — critical resistance immediately overhead
⚠ Weekly ↓4%(W)=153 stocks: weekly damage far exceeds today's single-day bounce; 52W lows (14) > 52W highs (6)
⚠ %>EMA40=23.8% and %E20>E40=31.2%: structural trend indicators at multi-month lows; recovery requires sustained weekly closes above EMA40 for 80%+ of Nifty500
⚠ Near-term Nifty futures: SHORT_COVERING only (OI -1,302 lots on +1.12% price); absence of LONG_BUILDUP in near expiry confirms no fresh institutional conviction on long side
⚠ BankNifty double resistance at 58,000 and double support at 56,500 — BankNifty PCR 0.812 (BEARISH), max pain 59,000 (3.6% above spot) suggesting pinning well below
Watchlist (hover symbol for full reason)
SymbolLTPConvScreen Entry Stop (Hard) TSL T1 T2 R:R
DATAPATTNS₹3441.8MEDIUMMH
BEL₹463.4MEDIUMRH
NATCOPHARM₹1039.2MEDIUMMH
Avoid
SymbolGate / Reason
PETRONETGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=3.6×, DELIV_PCT=56.4%) — delivery spike into downtrend. Non-negotiable gate.
STALLIONGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=12.2×) — massive spike but price below all MAs. Distribution trap.
DCWGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=4.4×). Petrochemicals industry 5D=-5.3%,10D=-8.1%,20D=-12.7% — 0/3 FAIL. Sector markdown.
IMAGICAAGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=4.0×). Amusement Parks vol_ratio=3.0, pct_vol_spike=100% with negative deliv_trend — distribution signal.
IOLCPGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=3.4×). Pharmaceuticals industry failing, delivery spike into downtrend.
AWLGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=3.4×, DELIV_PCT=80.5%). Edible Oil 5D=-0.7%, 10D=-6.2% failing.
BPCLGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=2.2×). Refineries 5D=-4.8%, 10D=-5.3%, 20D=-6.4% — 0/3 FAIL. MARKDOWN industry.
HINDPETROGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=2.1×). Same Refineries MARKDOWN industry as BPCL.
RTNINDIAGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=3.0×). E-Retail 5D=-0.5%,10D=-10.0%,20D=-19.8%,100D=-31.0% — deep markdown, Gate 1 suspect territory.
ABLBLGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=3.1×). Speciality Retail 5D=-3.9%,10D=-8.9%,20D=-16.1% — 0/3 FAIL, MARKDOWN.
ANGELONEGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=2.3×). Stockbroking 5D=-2.4%,10D=-7.1%,20D=-9.7% — distribution into declining trend.
APTUSGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=2.2×). Housing Finance 5D=-1.6%,10D=-5.1%,20D=-8.1% — FAIL.
UNOMINDAGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=2.2×). Auto Components 5D=-2.6%,10D=-6.9%,20D=-6.4% — 0/3 FAIL.
DELTACORPGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=2.1×). Amusement Parks — distribution signal (vol_ratio=3.0, pct_vol_spike=100%, 5D=+0.8% but deliv_trend=-4.3).
RELIGAREGate 2: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1 (SPIKE_RATIO=2.1×). Investment Company 5D=-0.9%,10D=-5.3%,20D=-8.4% — delivery spike into weak trend.
LVPAIGate 1 example: Any stock with 200D_high_dist < -25% (e.g. Education 100D=-30.9%, E-Retail 100D=-31.0%) → distribution trap, avoid.
Themes
Aerospace & Defense: Only large industry (18 stocks) with 3/3 positive return streak (5D/10D/20D all positive); government capex + defence indigenisation provides structural tailwind isolated from global IT/macro selloffVIX crash relief rally — not new bull: Today's 19% VIX drop triggered short covering (not fresh longs); regime remains TRANSITION until sustained %>EMA40 recovery above 40% and FII switching from net shortPharma micro-caps at 52W highs: NATCOPHARM, LUPIN, SUNPHARMA, GLENMARK, JBCHEPHARM all at/near 52W highs with resilience=5 while sector medians negative — stock-picker's market within pharmaOI gravity zone 24000–25000: Double PE wall at 24000 (weekly+monthly) and double CE wall at 25000 creates a defined trading range; breakouts in either direction require sustained FII positioning shift
Action Plan
With VIX at 18.91 (ELEVATED, 96th percentile) falling sharply from 23.36, the immediate panic has washed out but the structural risk-off environment requires defensive positioning — restrict new longs to MEDIUM conviction only and size at 50% of normal. OI structure defines 24000–25000 as the dominant range with 24300 as immediate ceiling (38pts above spot); use any intraday strength toward 24300–24350 to hedge or reduce, and treat 24000 as the key support where failure triggers re-evaluation of all longs. For individual stock positions, focus exclusively on DATAPATTNS and BEL (Aerospace & Defense, only sector passing 3/3 strength test) with entries on 3–5% pullbacks to reduce overbought RSI risk, and NATCOPHARM as a pharma outlier at 52W high with hard stops at 1.5×ATR — exit all positions immediately if Nifty sustains below 24000 or if FII net short position worsens beyond -200,000 contracts.
🧠 CLAUDE REASONING ▶ (click to expand)