NSE EOD Analysis v2

2026-03-12 · claude-sonnet-4-6 · unified screener · compact OI
Educational market analysis only. Not investment advice.
Market Regime
BEAR
HIGH confidence
FII aggressively short, VIX at 99th percentile, most industries in markdown
Nifty futures show SHORT_BUILDUP across all three expiries (OI +1.13% while price -0.87%); FII net index short -226,327 contracts (2-day streak), cash selling -₹7,050 cr. Breadth is historically weak: only 26.6% stocks above EMA10, 53 stocks at 52W lows vs 10 at highs, ↓4%(W)=144 confirming broad distribution.
India VIX
21.52
VIX at 99th percentile of 52-week range (9.15–23.36) with 5-day rising trend; risk-off conditions mandate reduced exposure and restrict sector views to max HOLD.
Breadth
DETERIORATING
Only 39% of Nifty 500 advanced today (below 40% bearish threshold); structural indicators are in panic-zone territory with 26.6% above EMA10, 23.2% above EMA20, and 24.4% above EMA40. 53 stocks sit at 52W lows vs only 10 at highs, and ↓4%(W)=144 confirms broad multi-day distribution.
⚠ March 9 saw 440 stocks decline (Adv%=12%) — extreme single-day damage
⚠ Recovery incomplete: EMA10/20/40 ratios still depressed vs pre-selloff levels
⚠ Despite today's 195 advances, %E10>E20 (23.2%) hasn't recovered — trend still broken
⚠ Only 4 stocks in ↑25% tail vs 10 in ↓25% over 25D — asymmetric distribution
OI Structure
Weekly bias
BEARISH
Monthly bias
NEUTRAL
Weekly max pain
23500.0
Monthly max pain
23500.0
Weekly CE wall at 23700 is formidable (3.04M OI, fresh +2.52M today = largest single-day CE write in the data), placing spot at 23639 essentially at the ceiling with only 61 pts of upside before resistance; weekly PE wall at 23500 (4.33M OI, +0.72M) limits downside to 139 pts in the near term. Monthly structure shows 24000 CE (3.58M, +200K building) as key resistance and 23000 PE (5.67M, +168K) as strong floor, with weekly PCR ~0.83 (bearish) confirming the short-term bearish tilt despite monthly PCR ~1.2 suggesting institutional hedges are in place below.
Sector Rotation
▲ LEADING
Telecom InfrastructureHOLDNEUTRALOnly passing industry on all three timeframes: 5D=+1.7%, 10D=+5.5%, 20D=+3.9%. vol_ratio=1.1, pct_vol_spike=40%, deliv_trend=-1.9 (not qualifying for ACCUMULATION). Best structural momentum in the universe.
Integrated Power UtilitiesHOLDNEUTRALPasses on 5D=+1.3% and 20D=+0.5%; vol_ratio=3.5 and pct_vol_spike=66.7% show high participation but deliv_trend=-24.9 disqualifies ACCUMULATION label. TATAPOWER (CONFLUENCE=3) is key representative.
Dairy ProductsHOLDMARKUP5D=+3.5%, 10D=+2.2% (2/3 PASS); pct_vol_spike=50%>30 and 5D>3 → MARKUP. deliv_trend=2.1 adds conviction. Small group (6 stocks), elevated VIX limits entry.
Aerospace & DefenseHOLDHOLDINGPasses on 10D=+3.3% and 20D=+0.1%; vol_ratio=0.6<0.75 and abs(5D)=0.2<2 → HOLDING phase (institutional quiet accumulation). pct_above_ma20=55.6% is one of the highest in the market.
▼ LAGGING
Private Sector BankAVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-6.7%, 10D=-9.1%, 20D=-9.4% (all negative); pct_vol_spike=31.6%>30 and 5D<-3 → MARKDOWN. pct_above_ma20=10.5% (near zero). AXISBANK, KOTAKBANK both in deep RED.
Personal CareAVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-6.0%, 10D=-10.9%, 20D=-10.7%; pct_vol_spike=40%>30 → MARKDOWN. pct_above_ma20=0% (entire group below MA20). GODREJCP delivery spike but MA_SIGNAL=RED confirms distribution.
Computers - Software & ConsultingAVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-2.1%, 10D=-6.6%, 20D=-17.4% (all negative); vol_ratio=0.7, pct_above_ma20=13.3%. Deep structural downtrend in IT, 100D=-28.9% shows persistent outflows.
Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC)AVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-3.4%, 10D=-8.4%, 20D=-9.8%; 5D<-3 and pct_vol_spike=34%>30 → MARKDOWN. FII short positioning compounds the bearish signal for leveraged financials.
Defensive rotation into power/energy infrastructure and pharma relative strength while financials, IT, and consumption sectors face sustained institutional distribution.
Delivery Signal
NEUTRAL
Delivery spike stocks are dominated by CONFLUENCE=1 names with MA_SIGNAL=RED (ANGELONE, GODREJCP, MUTHOOTFIN, KOTAKBANK, AMBUJACEM etc.) — these are distribution traps, not accumulation. Genuine CLEAN signals are scarce: only COALINDIA (SPIKE_RATIO=2.2x, GREEN signal, 200D_position=100%) and TATAPOWER (SPIKE_RATIO=3.9x, GREEN signal, 200D_dist=-3%) qualify as smart money accumulation; all remaining delivery spikes on RED signals indicate institutional selling into retail buying.
SymbolRatioNote
COALINDIA2.2200D_high_dist=0.0% (AT 52W HIGH), 200D_position=100%, resilience_score=5/5. MA_SIGNAL=GREEN, MA_ALIGNED=True. Delivery 36.8% vs 60D avg 48.5% — volume-led spike with confirmed price strength.
TATAPOWER3.9200D_high_dist=-3.0%, 200D_position=81.9%, resilience_score=5/5. MA_SIGNAL=GREEN, 5D=+6.7%. Delivery 31.2% on 3.9x spike ratio = strong institutional interest in Integrated Power Utilities (passing industry).
Risk Flags
⚠ VIX=21.52 at 99th percentile of 52-week range — EXTREME_HIGH; any position sizing must account for 2-3x normal volatility
⚠ FII net index short -226,327 contracts (+20,026 added TODAY) — 2-day SHORT streak; largest short position seen in recent history
⚠ FII cash equity net: -₹7,050 cr today, -₹6,267 cr yesterday — sustained institutional selling across equity markets
⚠ FII PE long (926K) >> CE long (563K): hedging/bearish options positioning confirms directional bias
⚠ Weekly CE wall at 23700 sits only 61 pts above spot (23639) — Nifty is pinned at resistance with massive fresh writing (+2.52M contracts today)
⚠ Nifty SHORT_BUILDUP across ALL three futures expiries (Mar, Apr, May) = rare unanimous bearish signal
⚠ BankNifty DOUBLE_RESISTANCE at 56000 (both Mar+Apr expiry) — BankNifty currently 55100, strong cap 900 pts above
⚠ ↓4%(W)=144 stocks — broad weekly distribution; only 46 stocks up >4% for the week
⚠ 53 stocks at 52W lows vs 10 at 52W highs — worst ratio in recent 60-day breadth history
⚠ NATIONALUM RSI=83.5 and JINDALPOLY RSI=92.1 — extreme overbought; chasing at elevated VIX is high-risk
⚠ FII_SHORT_CLIENT_LONG divergence active: retail holding longs vs FII pressing shorts = trapped retail scenario
Watchlist (hover symbol for full reason)
SymbolLTPConvScreen
COALINDIA₹470.1HIGHDMRH
TATAPOWER₹402.2MEDIUMDMH
LUPIN₹2357.3MEDIUMMRH
NATIONALUM₹409.2MEDIUMMRH
AUROPHARMA₹1311.9MEDIUMMH
SUNPHARMA₹1825.3MEDIUMMH
ABB₹6409.0MEDIUMMH
Avoid
SymbolGate / Reason
ASHOKLEYGate 2 triggered: MA_SIGNAL=RED + delivery spike (SPIKE_RATIO=3.1x, IN_D=1, DELIV_PCT=57.5%). Price below MA20/MA50/MA200 — delivery spike into downtrend = institutional distribution, not accumulation.
ANGELONECONFLUENCE=1 (D only). MA_SIGNAL=RED. Stockbroking industry FAILING (5D=-3.6%, 10D=-7.5%). SPIKE_RATIO=6.7x on RED signal = distribution trap.
GODREJCPCONFLUENCE=1 (D only). MA_SIGNAL=RED. SPIKE_RATIO=6.2x but Personal Care in MARKDOWN (5D=-6.0%, pct_above_ma20=0%). Heavy delivery into falling price = distribution.
MUTHOOTFINCONFLUENCE=1 (D only). MA_SIGNAL=RED. NBFC in MARKDOWN. SPIKE_RATIO=3.8x with price below all MAs = trap.
ADANIGREENCONFLUENCE=1 (D only). MA_SIGNAL=RED. Power Generation FAILING (20D=-6.5%). SPIKE_RATIO=3.5x on RED signal.
AMBUJACEMCONFLUENCE=1 (D only). MA_SIGNAL=RED. Cement industry FAILING (5D=-4.2%, 10D=-8.2%, 20D=-12.9%). SPIKE_RATIO=3.6x = distribution into weakness.
KOTAKBANKCONFLUENCE=1 (D only). MA_SIGNAL=RED. Private Sector Bank in MARKDOWN (5D=-6.7%, 10D=-9.1%). SPIKE_RATIO=2.0x into sustained downtrend.
KTKBANKCONFLUENCE=2 (R+H) but industry Private Sector Bank in MARKDOWN (5D=-6.7%, 10D=-9.1%, 20D=-9.4%, MARKDOWN SM signal). Failing industry with CONFLUENCE=2 insufficient for watchlist entry.
JINDALSTELCONFLUENCE=2 (R+H) but Iron & Steel FAILING (5D=-1.8%, 10D=-6.4%, 20D=-6.7%). 200D_high_dist=-3.3%, resilience=4 — not bad structure, but industry in markdown. Skip in current regime.
Themes
Defensive pharma/energy outperformance: COALINDIA, TATAPOWER, LUPIN showing 52W high resilience while broader market deterioratesPower sector bifurcation: Integrated Power Utilities (PASS) and Power Generation (TATAPOWER, NTPC) attracting delivery-backed flows amid energy security themeSmart money vs retail divergence: FII aggressively short index futures while CLIENT (retail) accumulates — classic distribution phase setupTelecom infrastructure as sole sector passing all three return timeframes (5D/10D/20D positive) — potential safe harbour in bear market52-week high club shrinking rapidly: only 10 stocks at new highs in 500-stock universe — leadership narrowing to individual names not sectors
Action Plan
With VIX at 21.52 (99th percentile, RISING) and Nifty futures in SHORT_BUILDUP across all expiries, the primary stance is capital preservation — no fresh aggressive longs, reduce existing positions in MARKDOWN sectors (Banks, IT, NBFC, Personal Care). For the watchlist, COALINDIA is the single highest-conviction name (CONFLUENCE=4, 52W high, delivery confirmed, RS_5D=+9.0) suitable for a small tracking position with stop below 450 (ATR-based); TATAPOWER and LUPIN are MEDIUM conviction HOLD candidates for those already positioned, not fresh buys. Risk management is non-negotiable: Nifty faces a concrete CE wall at 23700 (only 61 pts above spot) with weekly max pain at 23500, meaning the bias is for the index to grind lower toward 23500 or squeeze briefly above 23700 before reverting — use any rally to 23700+ to reduce exposure rather than add, and treat the 23000 monthly PE wall (5.67M contracts) as the key downside target if FII short positioning intensifies.
🧠 CLAUDE REASONING ▶ (click to expand)