Educational market analysis only. Not investment advice.
Market Regime
BEAR
HIGH confidence
Fresh short buildup dominates; FII selling + PCR 0.548 confirm bear leg
Weekly PCR collapsed to 0.548 (EXTREMELY_BEARISH) and nxtweek PCR=0.552 with OI conviction score -1.40 triggering AVOID_ALL cap; FII index futures net -260,540 (SHORT) with cash equity selling -10,717 cr over 2 days, while client/retail holds long — classic trapped-retail vs. smart-money-short dynamic. VIX at 22.65 (99.2nd percentile, +6.08 pts above 20-DMA) keeps HIGH_FEAR regime intact despite slight falling trend.
India VIX
22.65
VIX at 99.2nd percentile signals extreme fear; even with a falling trend, VIX remains well above the 18 threshold required before any BUY conviction is permissible.
Breadth
DETERIORATING
Breadth is in extreme deterioration — March 13 shows only 8.2% advance rate (41 advancers vs. 459 decliners) with 117 stocks falling >4% intraday and 102 new 52-week lows; %>EMA20 collapsed to 12.8% and %>EMA10 to 11.6%, the worst readings of the 5-day window. The March 10 single-session bounce (84.8% advancers) has fully reversed with no structural follow-through, confirming the bear leg is resuming rather than pausing.
⚠ March 13: Adv%=8.2% — extreme internal weakness, 459 decliners vs. 41 advancers
⚠ 117 stocks declined >4% on 2026-03-13 (weekly: 252 stocks down >4%)
⚠ 102 new 52-week lows on 2026-03-13 vs. 0 new highs
⚠ %>EMA20=12.8% and %>EMA10=11.6% — fewer than 1 in 8 stocks above short-term momentum averages
⚠ March 10 bounce (84.8% adv) fully failed with no sustained follow-through across 3 sessions
OI Conviction Cap
W (50%)
PCR 0.548
EXTREMELY_BEARISH
-1.00
NW (20%)
PCR 0.552
EXTREMELY_BEARISH
-0.40
M (30%)
PCR 1.030
NEUTRAL
+0.00
OI conviction score -1.40 (weekly bearish dominates at 50% weight with -2.0 score). No new watchlist entries. Do not initiate longs.
⚠ DIVERGENCE — weekly bearish, monthly structure intact. Short-term caution. Medium-term not confirmed breakdown.
OI Structure — 4 Expiries
Weekly
BEARISH
PCR 0.548 · MaxPain 23500
R 24000 · S 23000
Next Week
BEARISH
PCR 0.552 · MaxPain 23500
R 23500 · S 23100
Monthly
NEUTRAL
PCR 1.03 · MaxPain 24500
R 24000 · S 23000
Next Month
NEUTRAL
PCR 0.917 · MaxPain 24500
R 24000 · S 23100
TRIPLE_WALL — Extremely strong ceiling. CE writers across 3 consecutive expiries. Spot 849 pts below. @ 24000 [CE_RESISTANCE] week+month+nxtmonthDOUBLE_WALL — Strong floor. PE writers across weekly + monthly. Spot 151 pts above. @ 23000 [PE_SUPPORT] week+monthDOUBLE_WALL — Secondary floor, nxtweek + nxtmonth alignment. @ 23100 [PE_SUPPORT] nxtweek+nxtmonth
All 4 expiries show SHORT_BUILDUP (Nifty futures -2.2%, OI +9-14% on near contracts), confirming fresh shorts not covering. PCR divergence (week 0.548 vs. month 1.03) is NOT bullish — OI conviction cap -1.40 overrides monthly neutrality; with spot only 151 pts above the 23000 double-wall, downside proximity to support is the dominant near-term risk, while the 24000 triple-wall caps any bounce.
Sector Rotation
▲ LEADING
E-LearningHOLDMARKUP5D=+6.9% >3% with vol_spike=50% >30% qualifies MARKUP; 10D=+1.7% and 20D=+0.1% show early-phase momentum. VIX=22.65 ≥18 caps view at HOLD; no BUY until VIX<18.
CoalHOLDMARKUPCOALINDIA 5D=+6.0%, 15D=+12.2%, resilience_score=5, 200D_position=96.9% — sustained momentum outperformance. VIX=22.65 prevents BUY; HOLD only while OI cap is AVOID_ALL.
▼ LAGGING
Refineries & MarketingAVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-8.9%, 10D=-12.8%, 20D=-9.4%; vol_spike=0% confirms no accumulation; delivery_trend=2.4% weak. All timeframes in confirmed MARKDOWN.
Microfinance InstitutionsAVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-7.4%, 10D=-16.1%, 20D=-15.9%; sustained multi-timeframe decline with vol_spike=25% and delivery_trend=1.9% — no smart money interest.
PetrochemicalsAVOIDMARKDOWN5D=-7.3%, 10D=-16.2%, 20D=-20.0%; vol_spike=37.5% with delivery_trend=11.5% signals distribution, not accumulation; severe 20D decline confirms markdown.
Bear regime rotation: only defensive momentum plays in Coal and E-Learning show relative strength while Refineries, Microfinance, and Petrochemicals face accelerating markdown across all timeframes.
Delivery Signal
DISTRIBUTING
Stage 2 produced 6 CLEAN candidates (COALINDIA, AEROFLEX, AUROPHARMA, SUNPHARMA, KTKBANK, SBC) all with GREEN MA signals and resilience ≥4, but zero qualify for watchlist under AVOID_ALL cap; 9 TRAP candidates (LT spike_ratio=5.16, ADANIGREEN=4.66, SPARC=4.47, ANGELONE=4.42, APOLLOTYRE=3.32) show delivery spikes into RED moving averages — classic distribution into weakness. FII cash equity -10,717 cr with index futures net SHORT -260,540 confirms smart money is distributing; retail long (client idx net +156,278) represents the trapped bid absorbing institutional selling.
| Symbol | Ratio | Note |
|---|
| COALINDIA | None | 200D_high_dist=-0.7%, 200D_position=96.9%, resilience_score=5 — strongest CLEAN candidate; blocked by AVOID_ALL OI cap only. Monitor for re-entry when PCR>0.80 and VIX<18. |
| AEROFLEX | None | 200D_high_dist=-1.2%, 200D_position=96.2%, RS_5D=11.6%, resilience_score=5, industry MARKUP (Iron & Steel Products) — second-best quality setup; blocked by AVOID_ALL cap. |
| AUROPHARMA | None | 200D_high_dist=-1.2%, 200D_position=94.7%, RS_5D=10.5%, resilience_score=4, RSI=79.2 (overbought risk) — strong pharma setup; blocked by AVOID_ALL cap. |
Risk Flags
⚠ OI divergence: weekly bearish (PCR W=0.548, PCR NW=0.552 — EXTREMELY_BEARISH) but monthly structure intact (PCR M=1.03 NEUTRAL, PCR NM=0.917 NEUTRAL) — divergence type MR_LONG
⚠ OI cap AVOID_ALL triggered: conviction score=-1.40; weekly expiry contributing -1.0 (PCR=0.548 × 50% weight) and nxtweek contributing -0.4 (PCR=0.552 × 20% weight) dragged total to -1.40
⚠ TRIPLE_WALL at 24000 CE across weekly + monthly + nxtmonth expiries — spot 849 pts below; CE writers in 3 consecutive expiries form impenetrable ceiling
⚠ PCR weekly=0.548 < 0.70 — aggressive CE writing; ceiling defense extremely close at 24000
⚠ VIX=22.65 at 99.2nd percentile (52-week); +6.08 pts above 20-DMA (37% premium); HIGH_FEAR zone with spike_alert monitoring active
⚠ FII index futures net SHORT -260,540 with cash equity selling -10,717 cr over 2 days; SHORT_BUILDUP confirmed across all 4 expiries (price -2.2%, OI +9–14% near contracts)
⚠ Breadth collapse on 2026-03-13: Adv%=8.2%, 459 decliners, 117 stocks down >4% intraday, 252 stocks down >4% weekly, 102 new 52-week lows vs. 0 new highs; %>EMA20=12.8%
⚠ Retail trapped long: client index net +156,278 vs. FII SHORT -260,540 — classic distribution structure; retail absorbing institutional short supply
⚠ DOUBLE_WALL at 23000 PE (weekly + monthly) only 151 pts below spot — downside proximity to support is a key risk if PE writers are tested
⚠ All 6 CLEAN Stage 2 candidates blocked by AVOID_ALL cap — effectively 0 actionable longs in current regime
Watchlist (hover symbol for reason)
| Symbol | LTP | Conv | Screeners |
|---|
| No watchlist stocks today |
Avoid
| Symbol | Gate / Reason |
|---|
| COALINDIA | OI cap AVOID_ALL (score=-1.40): weekly PCR=0.548 EXTREMELY_BEARISH (-1.0 contribution at 50% weight), nxtweek PCR=0.552 (-0.4 at 20% weight); no new longs permissible. Candidate itself is CLEAN (CONFLUENCE=3, 200D_high_dist=-0.7%, resilience=5, RSI=72.2, RS_5D=11.3) but hard OI rule overrides all stock-level signals. |
| AEROFLEX | OI cap AVOID_ALL (score=-1.40): weekly PCR=0.548/nxtweek PCR=0.552 both EXTREMELY_BEARISH; industry Iron & Steel Products in MARKUP but regime cap overrides. CLEAN candidate (CONFLUENCE=3, 200D_high_dist=-1.2%, 200D_position=96.2%, RS_5D=11.6%) — blocked entirely by hard OI rule. |
| AUROPHARMA | OI cap AVOID_ALL (score=-1.40): weekly PCR=0.548 dominates at -1.40 conviction score. CLEAN (CONFLUENCE=3, 200D_high_dist=-1.2%, RSI=79.2 overbought risk, RS_5D=10.5%) with Pharma industry NEUTRAL — blocked by hard OI rule; RSI=79.2 adds additional pullback risk if cap lifted. |
| SUNPHARMA | OI cap AVOID_ALL (score=-1.40): no new longs permissible. CLEAN (CONFLUENCE=3, 200D_high_dist=-1.6%, 200D_position=88.8%, DELIV_PCT=69.0%, resilience=4) — blocked by hard OI rule despite strong delivery fundamentals. |
| KTKBANK | OI cap AVOID_ALL (score=-1.40) plus industry Private Sector Bank in MARKDOWN (5D=-6.6%); doubly disqualified — blocked by hard OI cap and failing industry gate (industry_pass=false, industry_sm=MARKDOWN). |
| SBC | OI cap AVOID_ALL (score=-1.40) plus industry Garments & Apparels in MARKDOWN (industry_pass=false, industry_sm=MARKDOWN); doubly disqualified — hard OI rule overrides CLEAN classification (CONFLUENCE=3, 200D_position=98.3%). |
| LT | Gate 2 fail: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1; delivery 66.0% into downtrend (spike_ratio=5.16 — highest trap ratio in universe). Distribution trap confirmed. |
| ADANIGREEN | Gate 2 fail: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1; delivery 63.2% into RED MAs; spike_ratio=4.66 >4 — very strong spike into downtrend = high trap probability. |
| SPARC | Gate 2 fail: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1; delivery 75.5% (very high), spike_ratio=4.47; RS_5D=28.9% but negative MA structure — retail trap despite apparent momentum. |
| ANGELONE | Gate 2 fail: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1; spike_ratio=4.42 into downtrend; CONFLUENCE=2 also fails BEAR confluence gate. |
| APOLLOTYRE | Gate 2 fail: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1; delivery 63%, spike_ratio=3.32 into distribution trap. |
| CUPID | Gate 2 fail: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1; spike_ratio=3.28; CONFLUENCE=2 fails BEAR gate. |
| SMCGLOBAL | Gate 2 fail: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1; delivery 37.6% into RED MAs; spike_ratio=2.89. |
| AMBUJACEM | Gate 2 fail: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1; delivery 60.2% into RED MAs; spike_ratio=2.61; CONFLUENCE=2 fails BEAR gate. |
| UNOMINDA | Gate 2 fail: MA_SIGNAL=RED + IN_D=1; delivery 60.1% into RED MAs; spike_ratio=2.52; CONFLUENCE=2 fails BEAR gate. |
| CUMMINSIND | Confluence gate: MA_SIGNAL=NEUTRAL (no bullish confirmation); 5D_RET=-3.2% negative; NEUTRAL MA in BEAR regime insufficient. spike_ratio=2.22. |
| HFCL | Confluence gate: MA_SIGNAL=GREEN but only ABOVE_MA20 (not above MA50/MA200); incomplete 200D data; MA structure incomplete for BEAR regime entry. spike_ratio=2.18. |
| NLCINDIA | Confluence gate: CONFLUENCE=3 but 200D_high_dist/200D_position data missing — Gate 1 and Gate 3 cannot be verified. Incomplete candidate. spike_ratio=2.10. |
| CESC | Confluence gate: CONFLUENCE=3 but IN_D=1 with missing MA_SCORE, RSI, 5D/15D data — incomplete row, gates unverifiable. spike_ratio=3.03. |
| NTPC | Confluence gate: CONFLUENCE=3 but IN_D=1 with missing 200D_high_dist, 200D_position, resilience_score — delivery analysis incomplete, gate clearance unconfirmable. spike_ratio=2.22. |
| SPECTRUM | Gate 3 fail: 200D_high_dist=-15.6% (moderate drawdown) + 200D_position=60.0% (mid-range); no CLEAN delivery spike; drawdown without bullish setup triggers Gate 3. |
| ICDSLTD | Gate 1 borderline: 200D_high_dist=-14.2%; 200D_resilient=False; industry Diversified Commercial Services in markdown (-4.2% 5D). Suspect classification. |
| DEEDEV | Gate 3 fail: 200D_high_dist=-7.8% (borderline) but 200D_position=81.7% (mid-range, not upper quartile); DELIV_PCT missing; Industry (Industrial Products) NEUTRAL with sector weakness. |
| THERMAX | Gate 3 fail: 200D_high_dist=-18.3% (moderate trap range) + 200D_position=38.2% (low-range); DELIV_PCT missing; moderate drawdown without delivery confirmation. |
| PRECOT | Gate 3 fail: 200D_high_dist=-19.3% (approaching trap threshold) + 200D_position=62.8%; DELIV_PCT missing; Gate 3 applied on moderate drawdown without clean delivery spike. |
| ALIVUS | Gate 1 soft fail: 200D_high_dist=-12.6%; 200D_position=38.4% (approaching trap zone <50%); 200D_resilient=False. SUSPECT classification. |
| NELCAST | Gate 1 hard trigger: 200D_high_dist=-29.5% < -25% threshold — distribution trap confirmed. 200D_position=40.2% mid-range. HARD AVOID. |
| CHENNPETRO | CONFLUENCE=2 fails BEAR gate; MA_SIGNAL=NEUTRAL; 5D_RET=-8.9%, RS_5D=-3.6% underperforming; industry Refineries MARKDOWN (-8.9% 5D). spike_ratio=0.75. |
| BANDHANBNK | CONFLUENCE=2 fails BEAR gate; MA_SIGNAL=NEUTRAL; 5D_RET=-4.1%; ABOVE_MA20=False; industry Private Sector Bank MARKDOWN (-6.6% 5D). spike_ratio=0.71. |
| PRECWIRE | CONFLUENCE=2 fails BEAR gate; MA_SIGNAL=NEUTRAL; 5D_RET=-15.1% (severe), RS_5D=-9.8% (heavy underperformance); 200D_position=26.6% (<30% hard trap zone). spike_ratio=1.92. |
| VEDL | CONFLUENCE=2 fails BEAR gate; MA_SIGNAL=NEUTRAL; 5D_RET=-4.4%; ABOVE_MA20=False; industry Diversified Metals weak. spike_ratio=0.99. |
| All CONFLUENCE=2 stocks (80+ names including BHEL, LAURUSLABS, NMDC, HINDALCO, SBIN, TATASTEEL, UNIONBANK, BANKBARODA, RBLBANK, AUBANK and others) | BEAR regime requires CONFLUENCE≥3; all CONFLUENCE=2 stocks auto-rejected. In HIGH_FEAR environment (VIX=22.65, FII index futures SHORT -260,540, PCR=0.548), tighter screening is mandatory. |
Themes
Bear leg with SHORT_BUILDUP across all 4 expiries — fresh institutional shorts defended by triple 24000 ceilingRetail trapped long vs. FII short — distribution into fear bounce riskPharma and Coal showing relative strength but no actionable longs until OI cap liftsRefineries, Microfinance, Petrochemicals in accelerating MARKDOWN — avoid sector rotation into thesePCR divergence (weekly 0.548 vs. monthly 1.03) signals tactical bear, structural recovery possible only on monthly timeframeExtreme breadth deterioration (8.2% adv rate, 102 new 52W lows) signals broad-market bear, not sector-specific rotation
Action Plan
The market is in a confirmed BEAR regime with OI conviction cap AVOID_ALL (score=-1.40), driven by weekly PCR=0.548 and nxtweek PCR=0.552 (both EXTREMELY_BEARISH) across SHORT_BUILDUP conditions on all 4 expiries; all watchlist entries are prohibited and all 6 CLEAN Stage 2 candidates (COALINDIA, AEROFLEX, AUROPHARMA, SUNPHARMA, KTKBANK, SBC) are moved to avoid. Existing longs should be reviewed for stop-loss discipline — the nearest support double-wall sits at 23000 (only 151 pts below spot) while the 24000 triple-wall CE ceiling caps all bounce attempts at 849 pts above. Partial hedges (PE spreads near 23000–23100) may provide tactical protection given the stacked wall structure, but no fresh net-long equity positions should be initiated in this environment. Re-entry into longs requires ALL three conditions simultaneously: (1) weekly PCR must recover above 0.80 (current 0.548 must improve by 0.252 — indicating shift from EXTREMELY_BEARISH to at least NEUTRAL), (2) VIX must drop below 18 (currently 22.65, requires a 4.65-point decline from 99.2nd percentile levels), and (3) FO quadrant must exit SHORT_BUILDUP confirmation (currently all 4 expiries show SHORT_BUILDUP). Monitor COALINDIA and AEROFLEX as the highest-quality re-entry candidates (resilience_score=5, 200D_position >96%) once these three conditions are met concurrently.
🧠 STAGE 3 REASONING ▶ (click to expand)
1. OI CONVICTION CAP CHECK FIRST:
- cap=AVOID_ALL, score=-1.40
- Weekly PCR=0.548 (EXTREMELY_BEARISH), contributing -1.0 (50% weight × -2.0)
- Next week PCR=0.552 (EXTREMELY_BEARISH), contributing -0.4 (20% weight × -2.0)
- Monthly PCR=1.03 (NEUTRAL), contributing 0.0
- divergence=YES → add risk flag: "OI divergence: weekly bearish (PCR W=0.548, NW=0.552) but monthly structure intact (PCR M=1.03)"
- HARD RULE: watchlist[] MUST be EMPTY. All Stage 2 candidates → avoid[] with OI cap reason.
2. Regime + VIX impact:
- BEAR, HIGH confidence. VIX=22.65, HIGH_FEAR zone, 99.2 percentile, FALLING trend but still above MA20 by +6.08 pts.
- VIX > 18 → BUY conviction not allowed even if cap was lifted
- FO quadrant SHORT_BUILDUP all 4 expiries
- FII cash -10,717 cr, index futures net -260,540 (SHORT), 2-day selling streak
3. Leading/lagging sectors:
- Leading: E-Learning (MARKUP, 5D=6.9%), Coal (MOMENTUM, 5D=6.0%)
- Lagging: Refineries (-8.9% 5D, MARKDOWN), Microfinance (-7.4% 5D, MARKDOWN), Petrochemicals (-7.3% 5D, MARKDOWN)
4. Candidates: All 6 cleared Stage 2 gates (COALINDIA, AEROFLEX, AUROPHARMA, SUNPHARMA, KTKBANK, SBC) must go to avoid[] due to AVOID_ALL cap. Reason: "OI cap AVOID_ALL (score=-1.40): weekly PCR=0.548/nxtweek=0.552 EXTREMELY_BEARISH; no new longs."
5. Breadth:
- March 13: Adv%=8.2%, ↓4%=117 stocks, ↓4%(W)=252, 52W↓=102, %>EMA10=11.6%, %>EMA20=12.8%
- Extremely weak breadth today. March 9 was also brutal (12% adv). March 10 had a bounce (84.8% adv) but quickly faded.
- DETERIORATING trend overall.
6. Risk flags:
- OI divergence (weekly bearish PCR 0.548/0.552 vs monthly neutral PCR 1.03)
- cap=AVOID_ALL score=-1.40 (weekly bearish -1.4 contribution)
- TRIPLE_WALL at 24000 CE (weekly, monthly, nxtmonth) — spot 849 pts below
- VIX 22.65 at 99.2 percentile (HIGH_FEAR zone)
- FII consecutive selling: cash -10,717 cr + index futures SHORT_BUILDUP (2-day streak minimum)
- PCR weekly=0.548 < 0.7 — aggressive CE writing
- Breadth: 8.2% advance rate on March 13 with 117 stocks down >4%
Re-entry conditions: Weekly PCR > 0.80 AND VIX < 18 AND FO quadrant not SHORT_BUILDUP.
Now building the JSON:
Stacked walls: Triple wall 24000 CE (weekly+monthly+nxtmonth), Double wall 23000 PE (weekly+monthly), Double wall 23100 PE (nxtweek+nxtmonth).
All 6 candidates go to avoid[] with OI cap reason. Plus the Stage 2 already-avoided stocks are already in avoid from Stage 2.
For avoid[], I'll list the 6 candidates that cleared Stage 2 gates but must be blocked by OI cap, plus note the others are from Stage 2 avoidance.
Breadth warnings: today's Adv%=8.2%, ↓4%=117, 52W↓=102, %>EMA20=12.8% — extreme internal weakness.
FII selling streak: 2 days of index futures SHORT with cash selling. Not ≥3 days confirmed, so I won't add that specific flag but will note the FII bearish stance.
Let me now write the JSON carefully.